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Constructing-sized asteroid has a small probability of hitting Earth in 2032

January 30, 2025
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Constructing-sized asteroid has a small probability of hitting Earth in 2032
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Illustration of an asteroid close to Earth

2022 Hamara/Shutterstock

An asteroid as much as 100 metres large has a 1-in-83 probability of impacting Earth on 22 December 2032. That threat of impression is sufficient to have triggered international planetary defence response procedures for the primary time.

“It is a historic second,” says Richard Moissl on the European Area Company (ESA).

The asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, was first detected on 27 December 2024 by an automatic telescope in Chile that scans for asteroids. It’s now on the prime of ESA and…



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