Most likely essentially the most well-known of the annual meteor showers will quickly be reaching its most: The Leonids. These ultrafast meteors are anticipated to be at their finest for North American on Tuesday morning (Nov. 18).
The Leonid meteor bathe are identified for producing a number of the most wonderful meteor shows within the annals of astronomy. Most notable are meteor storms similar to in 1799, 1833 and 1966 when meteor charges of tens of hundreds per hour had been noticed. Extra just lately, in 1999, 2001 and 2002, lesser Leonid shows of up “solely” just a few thousand meteors per hour happened.
Comet crumbs
The Leonids received their moniker because the shower’s emanation point — from where the meteors seem to fan out — is located within the constellation of Leo, the Lion, from within the backward question mark pattern of stars known as “The Sickle.” The meteors are caused by periodic comet Tempel-Tuttle, which sweeps by means of the interior photo voltaic system each 33⅓ years. Every time the comet passes closest to the solar it leaves a “river of rubble” in its wake; a dense path of dusty particles. A meteor storm turns into potential provided that the Earth had been to attain a direct hit on a recent mud path ejected by the comet over the previous couple of centuries.
The “lion’s share” (no pun meant) of comet mud could be discovered simply forward and trailing behind Tempel-Tuttle. That comet final swept by means of the interior photo voltaic system in 1998. That is why spectacular meteor showers had been seen in 1999, 2001 and 2002, with declining numbers thereafter.
In 2016 Tempel-Tuttle reached aphelion, that time in its orbit, as removed from the solar as it may well get: 1.84 billion miles (2.96 billion km). Now the comet is on its approach again towards the solar and interior photo voltaic system and can sweep closest to the solar once more in Could 2031.
Slim pickings in 2025
But it’s also, in the general vicinity of the comet where the heaviest concentrations of meteoroids are as well. In contrast, at the point in the comet’s orbit where we will be passing by on Tuesday morning, there’s only a scattering of particles; bits of comet debris that crumbled off the comet’s frozen nucleus perhaps a millennia or two ago.
So, the 2025 Leonids are expected to show only low activity this year. According to a highly regarded Russian expert in meteor shower predictions, Mikhail Maslov, his forecasts point out peak Leonid exercise of roughly 15 meteors per hour throughout the time-frame from 18:00 UT on Nov.17 to 00:00 UT on Nov. 18. That interval would favor central and japanese Asia, together with Japan.
Throughout that very same interval, Maslov can also be suggesting an interplay with a path of meteoroids expelled by comet Tempel-Tuttle in 1699. Maslov cautions that many of those tiny particles will doubtless be blown away by photo voltaic radiation strain. “Nevertheless,” he provides, “Some bigger particles nonetheless could possibly be current so the variety of shiny meteors might improve in the course of the interval from 18 to 23 hours UT.”
Once more, this timeframe favors central and japanese Asia.
For North America, the most effective time to look can be earlier than daybreak on Tuesday, Nov. 18. By then, the Leonids can be previous their peak depth, and can most likely not produce greater than 5 to 10 meteors per hour.
The moon — only a slim crescent — is simply a few days from new and can pose no interference in anyway. However be conscious that Leonids are anticipated to dart throughout your line of sight on a median of as soon as each 6 to 12 minutes. And that is solely assuming you’ve a wide-open view of your entire sky and are blessed with darkish, non-light polluted circumstances.
Tips on how to observe and what to search for
Watching a meteor bathe is a comparatively simple pursuit. It consists of mendacity again, trying up on the sky and ready. Remember that any native gentle air pollution or obstructions like tall bushes or buildings will additional cut back your possibilities of making a meteor sighting.
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Leo does not start coming fully into view until the after-midnight hours, so that would be the best time to concentrate on looking for Leonids. As dawn is about to break at around 5 a.m. local time, The Sickle will have climbed more than two-thirds of the way up from the southeast horizon to the point directly overhead (called the zenith).
Also, because the Leonids are moving along in their orbit around the sun in a direction opposite to that of Earth, they slam into our atmosphere nearly head-on, resulting in the fastest meteor velocities possible: 45 miles (72 km) per second. Such speeds tend to produce bright meteors, which leave long-lasting streaks or vapor trains in their wake.
A mighty Leonid fireball can be quite spectacular, but such outstandingly bright meteors are likely to be very few and very far between this year (if any are seen at all).
A look ahead
The good news is that as Comet Tempel-Tuttle draws closer to the sun, the Leonids are expected to slowly improve. But the very best years of the next Leonid cycle won’t come until 2034 and 2035, when hourly rates in the many hundreds per hour may be possible.
But if you can’t wait until then, here’s some good news: A far more prolific meteor shower is coming our way in less than a month: the December Geminids, now considered to be the best meteor shower of the year, producing over 100 per hour. They are expected to peak during the overnight hours of Dec. 13-14. Space.com of course, will provide you with all the details as we get closer to that date. So, stay tuned!
Joe Rao serves as an instructor and guest lecturer at New York’s Hayden Planetarium. He writes about astronomy for Natural History magazine, Sky and Telescope and different publications.
